Dynamic Stochastic Blockmodel Regression for Network Data: Application to International Militarized Conflicts

نویسندگان

چکیده

The decision to engage in military conflict is shaped by many factors, including state- and dyad-level characteristics as well the state’s membership geopolitical coalitions. Supporters of democratic peace theory, for example, hypothesize that community states less likely wage war with each other. Such theories explain ways which nodal dyadic affect evolution patterns over time via their effects on group memberships. To test these arguments, we develop a dynamic model network data combining hidden Markov mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel identifies latent groups underlying structure. Unlike existing models, incorporate covariates predict node memberships direct formation edges between dyads. While prior substantive research often assumes international militarized independent across static time, demonstrate driven states’ evolving blocs. Our analysis disputes from 1816 2010 two distinct blocs states, only one exhibits unusually low rates conflict. Changes monadic like democracy shift coalitions, making some more pacific but others belligerent. Supplementary materials this article are available online.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the American Statistical Association

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0162-1459', '1537-274X', '2326-6228', '1522-5445']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2021.2024436